* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * LIDIA 09/19/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 26 26 25 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 26 26 25 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 14 15 18 16 12 16 8 20 11 14 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 14 345 345 324 320 302 299 318 333 354 9999 9999 9999 SST (C) 28.5 28.4 28.0 27.5 26.9 25.5 24.5 24.0 23.1 22.7 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 152 151 147 142 136 121 111 105 96 92 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.7 -51.6 -51.9 -51.3 -50.7 -51.4 -50.7 -51.3 -50.9 -51.1 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 5 4 2 2 0 1 N/A N/A N/A 500-300 MB RH 67 65 63 59 58 55 53 48 42 41 N/A N/A N/A MO FLX (M/S/D) -13 -5 0 -4 -1 3 -1 0 0 -2 N/A N/A N/A 850 MB VORT 30 24 17 22 32 19 42 27 90 91 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1058 962 876 879 889 892 971 1004 1106 1259 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.2 15.4 16.5 17.3 18.1 19.7 20.7 21.3 22.1 22.1 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 114.1 114.5 114.9 116.0 117.0 119.0 120.7 121.9 124.0 125.8 N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 30/ 10 CX,CY: 5/ 9 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 837 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 101 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 35 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.7 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 11. 11. 11. 13. 15. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -8. -7. -5. -4. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -12. -15. -16. -18. -19. 500-300 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -13. -13. -12. -13. -12. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 8. 8. 8. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -6. -11. -15. -18. -19. -19. -19. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -7. -12. -16. -17. -17. -18. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) LIDIA 9/19/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -10.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.31 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 14.9 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.15 SST (C) : Value: 27.9 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.34 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 120.6 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.85 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 82.0 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.73 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 74.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.65 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 21.7 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.31 Scaled RI index= 3.35 Prob of RI= 15.6% is 1.3 times the sample mean(12.0%)