* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * MAX 09/19/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 44 48 51 54 55 51 44 36 27 19 DIS V (KT) LAND 35 39 44 48 51 54 55 51 44 36 27 19 DIS SHEAR (KTS) 8 8 13 12 5 10 7 13 7 16 12 16 14 SHEAR DIR 18 27 4 12 322 314 303 324 333 320 322 310 278 SST (C) 28.3 28.1 27.8 27.5 27.1 26.2 25.2 24.4 23.4 22.4 21.8 21.6 21.5 POT. INT. (KT) 150 148 145 142 138 128 118 110 99 89 82 80 79 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.7 -52.0 -51.9 -51.3 -52.0 -51.6 -52.0 -51.3 -51.2 -51.2 -51.2 -51.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 4 5 3 4 2 1 0 0 0 500-300 MB RH 60 61 56 53 53 48 42 36 27 24 24 27 29 MO FLX (M/S/D) 1 2 4 0 0 1 0 0 1 -11 -14 -3 0 850 MB VORT 36 55 59 59 67 59 70 39 29 -15 -44 -41 -50 LAND (KM) 984 1004 1036 1053 1052 1044 1071 1069 1031 1034 1119 1135 1116 LAT (DEG N) 15.4 15.9 16.3 16.8 17.3 18.4 19.5 20.6 21.9 23.4 25.0 26.0 26.5 LONG(DEG W) 115.0 116.0 117.0 117.8 118.5 119.7 121.0 122.0 122.9 124.1 125.8 126.7 127.2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 599 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 76 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 30 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 9. 8. 7. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -14. -16. -19. -21. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 11. 14. 15. 12. 7. -1. -9. -17. -24. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 9. 13. 16. 19. 20. 16. 9. 1. -8. -16. -23. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) MAX 9/19/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.79 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 9.0 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.54 SST (C) : Value: 27.8 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.31 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 109.5 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.74 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 82.2 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.74 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 84.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.78 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 15.8 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.57 Scaled RI index= 4.46 Prob of RI= 36.6% is 3.1 times the sample mean(12.0%)