* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * PHILIPPE 09/19/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 70 74 76 78 81 84 88 88 91 88 84 81 V (KT) LAND 65 70 74 76 78 81 84 88 88 91 88 84 81 SHEAR (KTS) 24 27 25 26 29 23 25 14 24 12 26 29 29 SHEAR DIR 288 290 292 285 291 292 280 258 264 234 253 223 236 SST (C) 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.3 29.0 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 162 157 152 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.4 -52.8 -53.1 -53.1 -52.5 -52.6 -51.7 -51.8 -51.4 -52.1 -51.4 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 10 10 9 9 10 9 9 10 9 9 500-300 MB RH 57 63 65 63 68 73 70 69 61 59 51 49 45 MO FLX (M/S/D) -2 0 -1 -5 0 10 9 24 21 0 0 3 -1 850 MB VORT 29 44 53 50 47 67 65 92 97 114 105 127 114 LAND (KM) 864 891 924 901 856 812 813 842 865 953 1086 1229 1360 LAT (DEG N) 16.8 17.4 18.0 18.5 19.0 20.1 21.3 22.4 23.4 24.9 26.8 28.3 29.4 LONG(DEG W) 55.9 56.3 56.7 57.2 57.6 58.2 58.6 58.9 59.4 59.8 60.4 60.4 59.9 HEAT CONTENT 96 100 103 100 98 80 65 57 52 57 41 27 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 0/ 6 CX,CY: 0/ 6 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 582 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 30 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 50 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 11.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 2. 4. 6. 9. 13. 16. 18. 19. 21. 20. 19. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR -2. -5. -9. -12. -18. -21. -21. -22. -21. -21. -21. -20. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. 1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 14. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 7. 8. 11. 14. 18. 20. 24. 22. 20. 17. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 3. 2. 1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 5. 9. 11. 13. 16. 19. 23. 23. 26. 23. 19. 16. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) PHILIPPE 9/19/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 15.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.60 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 26.2 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.41 SST (C) : Value: 29.8 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.90 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 100.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.67 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 75.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.59 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 100.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 1.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 11.6 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.88 Scaled RI index= 5.04 Prob of RI= 38.2% is 3.2 times the sample mean(12.1%)