* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * RITA 09/19/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 56 61 66 72 82 90 97 100 101 99 97 93 V (KT) LAND 50 56 61 66 72 82 90 97 100 101 99 97 93 SHEAR (KTS) 12 7 8 12 9 6 6 10 12 9 6 10 15 SHEAR DIR 245 261 173 207 218 172 223 171 194 192 189 194 220 SST (C) 30.1 30.2 30.2 30.3 30.2 29.7 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 165 165 165 164 165 165 165 165 165 165 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.1 -52.7 -52.4 -52.4 -51.8 -51.6 -51.3 -51.4 -51.1 -51.0 -50.8 -50.7 TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 13 13 12 12 12 12 11 11 10 10 7 500-300 MB RH 46 45 44 41 41 42 37 37 37 39 40 43 44 MO FLX (M/S/D) 6 0 -3 0 1 0 -1 5 4 3 5 0 -3 850 MB VORT 20 30 32 39 37 35 52 55 51 40 19 29 17 LAND (KM) 240 225 221 176 159 67 128 240 255 334 430 295 92 LAT (DEG N) 22.6 23.0 23.3 23.6 23.8 23.8 23.7 23.7 23.6 23.9 24.3 25.3 26.7 LONG(DEG W) 73.9 75.0 76.1 77.4 78.7 81.4 84.4 87.2 89.5 91.2 92.5 94.3 96.4 HEAT CONTENT 73 88 93 84 76 87 51 70 48 24 33 29 48 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 567 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 28 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 35 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 31.4 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 14. 17. 19. 21. 22. 23. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 6. 3. 1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 6. 12. 18. 23. 34. 41. 47. 50. 52. 50. 48. 44. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 6. 11. 16. 22. 32. 40. 47. 50. 51. 49. 47. 43. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) RITA 9/19/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 15.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.60 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 9.7 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.82 SST (C) : Value: 30.2 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.97 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 115.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.80 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 64.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.25 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 56.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.47 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 31.4 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.21 Scaled RI index= 4.11 Prob of RI= 13.1% is 1.1 times the sample mean(12.1%)