* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * JOVA 09/19/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 90 88 86 83 74 65 56 47 40 33 28 23 V (KT) LAND 90 90 88 86 83 74 65 56 47 40 33 28 23 SHEAR (KTS) 13 8 10 13 14 13 17 19 19 21 25 25 23 SHEAR DIR 132 156 165 164 176 190 192 211 199 196 194 212 206 SST (C) 27.2 26.9 26.7 26.6 26.5 26.3 26.1 25.9 25.8 25.7 25.5 25.3 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 139 136 133 132 131 129 127 125 124 123 121 119 119 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.7 -52.7 -51.8 -51.8 -52.6 -51.6 -51.9 -51.0 -51.7 -51.2 -51.9 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 5 5 500-300 MB RH 58 49 50 50 51 41 39 36 34 31 33 27 31 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 0 0 0 -1 4 4 5 3 6 3 10 850 MB VORT 99 92 94 111 119 112 123 106 102 87 77 61 57 LAND (KM) 1450 1375 1301 1231 1161 1041 949 885 852 785 701 644 602 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 15.1 15.4 15.7 15.9 16.4 17.0 17.4 17.8 18.5 19.8 20.9 21.9 LONG(DEG W) 142.1 142.7 143.3 143.9 144.5 145.5 146.2 146.7 146.9 147.4 148.1 148.8 149.6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 300/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 511 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 106 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 90 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 10.2 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -14. -19. -23. -26. -29. -30. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -13. -16. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -13. -13. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -6. -9. -17. -25. -34. -42. -48. -55. -61. -66. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. -1. -4. -7. -16. -25. -34. -43. -50. -57. -62. -67. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) JOVA 9/19/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 11.5 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.38 SST (C) : Value: 26.8 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.02 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 44.3 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.06 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 73.4 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.34 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 98.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.97 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 10.2 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.81 Scaled RI index= 3.21 Prob of RI= 13.1% is 1.1 times the sample mean(12.0%)