* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * KENNETH 09/19/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 110 102 92 82 74 59 49 43 38 35 31 28 27 V (KT) LAND 110 102 92 82 74 59 49 43 38 35 31 28 27 SHEAR (KTS) 13 16 19 19 17 17 16 19 17 20 21 23 18 SHEAR DIR 41 28 32 46 49 57 77 86 86 89 91 108 118 SST (C) 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.4 27.2 27.0 26.8 26.8 26.7 26.7 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 146 146 146 145 144 141 139 137 135 135 133 133 131 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.5 -52.5 -51.6 -52.1 -52.5 -52.0 -52.4 -51.7 -52.1 -51.9 -52.2 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 6 6 7 500-300 MB RH 65 59 54 52 50 53 51 52 50 56 52 49 44 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 0 0 1 2 2 1 6 5 3 0 7 850 MB VORT 42 38 35 49 57 63 94 85 91 81 82 82 109 LAND (KM) 2239 2273 2307 2326 2345 2348 2252 2178 2128 2050 1949 1840 1718 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 13.7 13.7 13.9 14.1 14.6 15.0 15.4 15.7 15.9 16.2 16.4 16.7 LONG(DEG W) 130.4 130.9 131.3 131.8 132.2 133.3 134.1 134.7 135.1 135.8 136.7 137.7 138.8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 245/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ -1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 554 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 97 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 115 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.1 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -11. -17. -23. -29. -33. -36. -39. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR -2. -6. -9. -12. -16. -16. -16. -15. -15. -15. -17. -16. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -13. -14. -15. -15. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -5. -11. -17. -23. -34. -42. -51. -58. -64. -70. -74. -76. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -4. -8. -11. -14. -16. -17. -15. -12. -10. -8. -7. -6. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -3. -7. -11. -14. -17. -18. -17. -14. -11. -9. -8. -7. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -8. -18. -28. -36. -51. -61. -67. -72. -75. -79. -82. -83. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) KENNETH 9/19/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.47 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 16.7 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.04 SST (C) : Value: 27.8 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.34 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 35.4 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 82.4 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.75 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 73.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.64 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 21.1 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.34 Scaled RI index= 2.57 Prob of RI= 3.0% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.0%)