* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * MAX 09/19/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 52 55 57 58 56 50 42 33 26 20 DIS V (KT) LAND 45 49 52 55 57 58 56 50 42 33 26 20 DIS SHEAR (KTS) 7 13 10 5 8 10 10 14 13 16 10 10 20 SHEAR DIR 17 4 357 305 289 337 294 325 306 327 305 312 272 SST (C) 28.1 27.7 27.4 26.9 26.5 25.6 24.5 23.5 22.5 22.1 22.2 22.4 22.5 POT. INT. (KT) 148 144 141 136 131 122 111 100 90 86 87 89 90 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.0 -51.8 -51.3 -51.7 -51.9 -51.8 -51.7 -51.3 -51.2 -51.1 -51.3 -50.9 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 500-300 MB RH 60 56 51 51 51 47 38 28 23 25 23 24 22 MO FLX (M/S/D) 2 4 0 0 1 -2 -1 -1 -1 -9 -4 2 0 850 MB VORT 55 58 60 71 75 71 78 43 43 -5 3 -18 -15 LAND (KM) 991 1013 1037 1036 1045 1079 1101 1084 1098 1205 1366 1440 1527 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.5 17.0 17.6 18.1 19.0 20.3 21.6 22.9 23.8 24.4 24.9 25.4 LONG(DEG W) 116.0 116.9 117.8 118.6 119.4 120.7 122.1 123.3 124.5 126.2 128.2 130.2 132.1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 611 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 48 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 35 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.5 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 4. 4. 2. 2. 1. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -15. -17. -20. -21. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 9. 11. 13. 11. 5. -2. -11. -18. -24. -31. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 7. 10. 12. 13. 11. 5. -3. -12. -19. -25. -31. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) MAX 9/19/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 10.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.94 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 8.7 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.56 SST (C) : Value: 27.3 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.18 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 94.9 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.59 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 81.2 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.69 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 81.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.74 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 20.5 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.37 Scaled RI index= 4.07 Prob of RI= 28.8% is 2.4 times the sample mean(12.0%)