* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * PHILIPPE 09/19/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 66 67 68 69 74 79 87 92 98 99 97 95 V (KT) LAND 65 66 67 68 69 74 79 87 92 98 99 97 95 SHEAR (KTS) 28 26 27 26 26 15 14 10 8 18 18 29 28 SHEAR DIR 287 285 285 288 297 281 299 249 289 223 235 230 225 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.6 29.2 28.5 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 160 149 137 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -52.8 -53.1 -52.9 -53.0 -52.6 -52.7 -52.6 -52.7 -52.4 -52.8 -52.7 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 9 10 9 10 9 10 9 9 9 500-300 MB RH 62 64 65 66 69 69 69 65 60 52 51 45 36 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 -1 0 0 15 9 14 2 2 0 6 14 -5 850 MB VORT 38 49 48 45 61 69 78 103 118 136 134 139 119 LAND (KM) 879 907 938 902 868 824 818 836 887 992 1141 1282 1415 LAT (DEG N) 17.2 17.7 18.2 18.7 19.2 20.2 21.4 22.6 24.0 25.5 27.1 28.6 30.0 LONG(DEG W) 56.2 56.5 56.8 57.2 57.5 58.1 58.6 59.1 59.7 60.0 59.9 59.9 60.0 HEAT CONTENT 99 101 101 98 92 75 65 55 55 56 35 23 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 345/ 6 CX,CY: -1/ 6 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 595 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 44 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 65 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 2. 4. 6. 8. 12. 15. 17. 18. 19. 19. 17. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR -2. -5. -9. -12. -15. -15. -13. -11. -10. -9. -9. -9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 13. 15. 17. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 25. 31. 33. 33. 31. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 3. 4. 9. 14. 22. 27. 33. 34. 32. 30. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) PHILIPPE 9/19/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 26.5 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.40 SST (C) : Value: 29.7 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.89 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 100.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.67 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 75.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.60 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 91.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.89 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 16.3 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.72 Scaled RI index= 4.87 Prob of RI= 32.2% is 2.7 times the sample mean(12.1%)