* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * RITA 09/19/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 54 59 63 69 77 85 90 94 96 94 92 87 V (KT) LAND 50 54 59 63 69 77 85 90 94 96 94 92 87 SHEAR (KTS) 9 6 12 10 7 12 6 16 12 13 15 19 19 SHEAR DIR 269 200 200 220 233 201 199 192 215 197 211 206 211 SST (C) 30.2 30.5 30.7 30.8 30.7 29.9 29.5 29.7 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.6 -52.4 -52.4 -52.2 -51.3 -51.6 -51.0 -51.3 -50.9 -51.0 -50.4 -50.8 TH_E DEV (C) 14 15 14 13 13 13 11 11 11 12 9 10 6 500-300 MB RH 47 44 43 43 42 39 40 38 37 37 37 38 34 MO FLX (M/S/D) 1 -2 1 4 2 0 1 6 0 0 0 5 2 850 MB VORT 29 28 35 36 38 42 53 68 60 47 19 43 13 LAND (KM) 225 216 179 143 109 93 204 307 340 449 397 224 39 LAT (DEG N) 22.8 23.1 23.3 23.5 23.7 24.0 24.2 24.3 24.5 25.0 25.8 26.8 28.0 LONG(DEG W) 74.6 75.8 76.9 78.2 79.5 82.3 85.0 87.2 89.1 91.1 93.2 95.0 96.3 HEAT CONTENT 80 94 89 90 100 66 59 72 50 31 52 39 48 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 560 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 3 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 45 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 24.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 15. 18. 20. 23. 23. 24. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 10. 9. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 18. 26. 34. 39. 43. 47. 45. 43. 39. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 9. 13. 19. 27. 35. 40. 44. 46. 44. 42. 37. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) RITA 9/19/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 8.6 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.85 SST (C) : Value: 30.6 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 1.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 115.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.80 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 65.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.26 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 71.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.65 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 24.9 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.43 Scaled RI index= 4.88 Prob of RI= 32.6% is 2.7 times the sample mean(12.1%)