* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * JOVA 09/19/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 90 88 86 83 74 64 54 45 37 28 22 16 V (KT) LAND 90 90 88 86 83 74 64 54 45 37 28 22 16 SHEAR (KTS) 9 8 11 12 10 15 20 22 19 22 30 28 28 SHEAR DIR 158 174 170 183 176 185 216 205 212 187 207 216 227 SST (C) 27.3 27.1 26.9 26.8 26.7 26.6 26.3 26.1 25.9 25.8 25.7 25.6 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 140 138 136 135 133 132 129 127 125 124 123 122 122 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.9 -51.8 -51.9 -52.5 -52.1 -52.2 -51.5 -51.9 -50.9 -51.7 -51.8 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 500-300 MB RH 54 47 48 53 52 43 40 35 33 30 28 24 19 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 4 -6 4 -10 6 8 850 MB VORT 90 95 113 121 113 116 121 96 100 67 66 49 49 LAND (KM) 1419 1352 1285 1217 1149 1034 949 891 858 806 746 711 666 LAT (DEG N) 15.2 15.5 15.8 16.0 16.2 16.6 17.3 17.9 18.5 19.5 20.9 22.0 22.9 LONG(DEG W) 142.2 142.8 143.3 143.9 144.5 145.5 146.1 146.5 146.7 147.1 147.8 148.5 149.5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 315/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 4 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 495 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 106 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 90 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 11.7 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -3. -4. -8. -13. -18. -22. -25. -27. -29. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -14. -18. -20. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -13. -13. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -5. -8. -15. -25. -35. -43. -50. -59. -66. -72. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. -2. -4. -7. -16. -26. -36. -45. -53. -62. -68. -74. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) JOVA 9/19/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 10.1 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.47 SST (C) : Value: 27.0 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.08 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 46.2 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.08 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 72.6 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.30 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 99.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.99 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 11.7 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.75 Scaled RI index= 3.29 Prob of RI= 14.5% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12.0%)