* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * KENNETH 09/19/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 105 96 86 77 68 54 44 35 31 27 25 24 24 V (KT) LAND 105 96 86 77 68 54 44 35 31 27 25 24 24 SHEAR (KTS) 13 17 14 17 19 18 18 25 18 22 16 18 13 SHEAR DIR 31 24 38 43 46 64 68 98 84 95 99 105 127 SST (C) 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.3 27.2 27.1 26.8 26.5 26.2 26.0 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 141 141 141 141 141 140 139 138 135 131 128 126 125 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.5 -51.5 -52.0 -52.2 -51.5 -52.1 -51.3 -52.3 -51.3 -52.2 -51.7 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 6 6 500-300 MB RH 60 52 48 50 47 52 54 55 51 54 50 44 38 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 0 0 2 0 2 3 0 3 4 0 0 850 MB VORT 28 42 53 60 50 53 64 55 60 79 107 120 111 LAND (KM) 2271 2286 2301 2308 2315 2345 2386 2310 2225 2134 2024 1909 1789 LAT (DEG N) 13.4 13.4 13.4 13.5 13.6 13.8 14.2 14.8 15.6 16.3 17.0 17.5 17.8 LONG(DEG W) 130.5 130.7 130.9 131.1 131.3 131.9 132.8 133.6 134.2 134.9 135.8 136.8 137.9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 225/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 563 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 83 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 115 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.4 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -7. -11. -16. -22. -27. -31. -34. -37. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR -2. -5. -8. -11. -15. -16. -18. -17. -17. -16. -16. -15. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -14. -15. -15. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -7. -13. -19. -26. -37. -46. -55. -61. -67. -71. -74. -75. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -3. -7. -10. -12. -14. -15. -13. -10. -8. -7. -6. -5. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -2. -6. -9. -11. -14. -15. -14. -12. -11. -9. -8. -6. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -9. -19. -28. -37. -51. -61. -70. -74. -78. -80. -81. -81. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) KENNETH 9/19/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -10.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.31 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 15.9 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.09 SST (C) : Value: 27.4 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.21 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 35.8 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 81.0 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.68 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 86.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.81 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 20.4 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.37 Scaled RI index= 2.47 Prob of RI= 2.8% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.0%)