* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * MAX 09/19/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 54 56 57 58 56 52 46 39 32 26 21 17 V (KT) LAND 50 54 56 57 58 56 52 46 39 32 26 21 17 SHEAR (KTS) 13 17 10 11 13 7 15 12 19 17 13 7 13 SHEAR DIR 333 327 313 290 304 303 320 348 340 358 344 317 308 SST (C) 27.7 27.4 27.0 26.6 26.2 25.4 24.7 24.3 23.7 23.1 22.7 22.9 23.3 POT. INT. (KT) 144 141 137 132 128 120 113 108 102 96 92 94 98 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.1 -51.6 -51.7 -52.1 -51.7 -51.9 -51.6 -51.6 -51.6 -51.8 -51.4 -51.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 2 1 2 500-300 MB RH 55 47 53 55 52 49 43 43 36 35 35 34 40 MO FLX (M/S/D) 4 -1 0 3 5 2 4 7 -8 -12 -9 -1 0 850 MB VORT 52 48 48 48 31 38 12 59 44 34 22 40 39 LAND (KM) 992 1009 1012 1020 1037 1074 1097 1117 1160 1236 1364 1512 1660 LAT (DEG N) 16.4 16.9 17.4 17.9 18.3 19.2 20.1 20.6 21.2 21.9 22.8 23.0 22.7 LONG(DEG W) 116.5 117.3 118.0 118.8 119.5 120.8 121.8 122.7 123.9 125.4 127.4 129.1 130.6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 586 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 26 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 35 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 24.2 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 8. 6. 5. 4. 2. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -17. -19. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 9. 10. 10. 6. 0. -8. -15. -21. -27. -31. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 6. 7. 8. 6. 2. -4. -11. -18. -24. -29. -33. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) MAX 9/19/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 15.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.90 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 13.0 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.28 SST (C) : Value: 27.0 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.08 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 86.4 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.50 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 81.2 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.69 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 74.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.65 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 24.2 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.20 Scaled RI index= 3.31 Prob of RI= 14.8% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12.0%)