* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * PHILIPPE 09/19/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 66 66 67 70 75 82 86 91 95 94 92 89 V (KT) LAND 65 66 66 67 70 75 82 86 91 95 94 92 89 SHEAR (KTS) 27 27 27 22 13 17 10 19 17 20 24 29 35 SHEAR DIR 283 279 285 289 273 262 226 254 206 233 201 225 207 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.3 28.5 27.2 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 162 149 132 119 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.0 -52.9 -52.9 -52.4 -52.4 -51.8 -52.4 -51.9 -52.2 -51.7 -51.7 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 9 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 7 500-300 MB RH 62 62 65 69 71 70 72 67 61 52 46 39 36 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 7 13 15 12 9 3 9 2 10 0 -3 3 850 MB VORT 49 54 56 73 84 91 111 102 129 123 135 141 150 LAND (KM) 912 944 907 880 856 830 851 917 992 1102 1273 1483 1338 LAT (DEG N) 17.7 18.3 18.8 19.3 19.8 21.0 22.7 24.1 25.2 26.6 28.6 30.6 32.6 LONG(DEG W) 56.4 56.8 57.1 57.4 57.7 58.3 59.0 59.4 59.6 59.8 60.1 59.8 59.0 HEAT CONTENT 97 97 95 86 78 62 58 50 54 43 20 8 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 340/ 6 CX,CY: -1/ 6 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 629 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 43 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 65 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 2. 4. 6. 8. 12. 14. 16. 17. 19. 17. 14. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR -2. -5. -8. -10. -12. -11. -12. -10. -11. -11. -11. -10. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -7. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 11. 13. 16. 18. 20. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 4. 9. 16. 20. 26. 30. 31. 29. 25. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 1. 2. 5. 10. 17. 21. 26. 30. 29. 27. 24. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) PHILIPPE 9/19/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 23.5 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.48 SST (C) : Value: 29.7 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.88 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 100.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.67 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 76.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.63 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 87.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.84 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 20.9 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.56 Scaled RI index= 4.77 Prob of RI= 28.2% is 2.3 times the sample mean(12.1%)