* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * RITA 09/19/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 66 72 78 84 92 99 104 106 106 103 97 92 V (KT) LAND 60 66 72 78 84 92 99 104 106 106 103 97 66 SHEAR (KTS) 11 9 7 3 8 9 8 14 13 13 14 25 25 SHEAR DIR 242 237 230 213 174 239 229 264 262 253 199 233 246 SST (C) 30.5 30.7 30.8 30.7 30.2 29.5 29.4 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 165 165 165 164 165 165 165 165 165 162 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.2 -52.2 -52.0 -51.3 -51.2 -50.6 -50.4 -50.3 -50.2 -50.4 -50.3 -50.3 TH_E DEV (C) 16 15 14 14 13 12 12 11 11 10 10 7 9 500-300 MB RH 44 44 43 42 44 43 42 41 44 45 43 44 46 MO FLX (M/S/D) 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 -3 -2 1 0 -12 0 850 MB VORT 35 41 27 29 35 34 51 59 44 14 24 1 -2 LAND (KM) 212 175 162 130 104 182 311 411 378 329 272 87 -65 LAT (DEG N) 23.1 23.4 23.7 24.0 24.2 24.5 24.8 25.3 25.7 26.2 26.8 28.1 29.9 LONG(DEG W) 75.9 77.2 78.4 79.6 80.8 83.4 85.9 87.8 89.5 91.5 93.8 95.0 95.3 HEAT CONTENT 100 94 87 112 96 52 51 88 61 94 40 43 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 549 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 40 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 50 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 2. 4. 6. 9. 13. 16. 18. 19. 21. 21. 21. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 9. 10. 10. 11. 10. 8. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -2. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 17. 22. 30. 37. 42. 44. 45. 43. 38. 32. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 6. 12. 18. 24. 32. 39. 44. 46. 46. 43. 37. 32. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) RITA 9/19/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 10.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.90 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 7.7 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.87 SST (C) : Value: 30.6 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 1.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 105.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.71 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 64.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.25 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 86.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.83 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 22.5 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.51 Scaled RI index= 5.07 Prob of RI= 39.2% is 3.2 times the sample mean(12.1%)