* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * JOVA 09/19/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 101 99 97 93 81 69 59 51 42 35 29 26 V (KT) LAND 100 101 99 97 93 81 69 59 51 42 35 29 26 SHEAR (KTS) 9 12 9 9 8 17 16 19 15 26 23 22 17 SHEAR DIR 158 161 164 187 186 200 213 197 181 187 198 197 211 SST (C) 27.1 27.0 26.8 26.7 26.6 26.3 26.2 26.0 25.9 25.8 25.8 25.8 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 138 137 135 133 132 129 128 126 125 124 124 124 124 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -52.3 -52.1 -52.6 -52.7 -51.8 -52.2 -51.4 -52.0 -51.3 -52.0 -51.7 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 5 5 5 6 500-300 MB RH 47 47 52 47 41 32 36 33 33 32 29 23 14 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 0 0 0 5 4 7 13 -5 9 2 0 850 MB VORT 95 105 110 104 103 117 102 90 84 62 55 38 17 LAND (KM) 1347 1292 1237 1192 1148 1037 953 899 856 785 708 613 518 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 15.8 16.0 16.3 16.5 17.1 17.5 18.0 18.6 19.4 20.5 21.2 21.7 LONG(DEG W) 142.8 143.3 143.7 144.1 144.4 145.3 146.0 146.4 146.7 147.3 148.1 149.2 150.4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 310/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 4 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 549 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 71 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 90 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 11.1 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -8. -13. -19. -25. -30. -33. -36. -38. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -10. -13. -15. -15. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. -1. -3. -7. -18. -29. -38. -46. -55. -62. -69. -73. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. -1. -3. -7. -19. -31. -41. -49. -58. -65. -71. -74. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) JOVA 9/19/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 10.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.94 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 9.5 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.51 SST (C) : Value: 26.8 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.04 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 34.9 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 72.4 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.29 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 96.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.95 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 11.1 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.77 Scaled RI index= 3.50 Prob of RI= 18.4% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.0%)