* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * KENNETH 09/19/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 80 71 63 56 46 38 33 31 30 29 30 31 V (KT) LAND 90 80 71 63 56 46 38 33 31 30 29 30 31 SHEAR (KTS) 16 14 17 18 19 21 21 17 19 16 16 10 4 SHEAR DIR 25 40 48 54 58 59 66 81 87 98 90 131 81 SST (C) 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.3 27.2 27.1 26.8 26.4 26.2 26.1 25.9 25.5 POT. INT. (KT) 141 141 141 141 140 139 138 135 130 128 127 125 121 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -51.7 -52.0 -52.4 -52.5 -51.8 -52.4 -51.7 -52.1 -51.6 -52.0 -51.6 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 3 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 500-300 MB RH 55 51 50 50 50 48 51 49 48 53 53 52 47 MO FLX (M/S/D) -2 0 0 0 0 7 4 2 5 3 11 3 0 850 MB VORT 46 51 40 29 30 57 42 89 96 124 121 109 79 LAND (KM) 2271 2282 2293 2300 2307 2322 2315 2331 2227 2151 2126 2033 1895 LAT (DEG N) 13.4 13.4 13.4 13.6 13.7 14.0 14.6 15.4 16.3 16.9 17.1 17.6 18.4 LONG(DEG W) 130.5 130.7 130.8 131.1 131.3 131.8 132.3 133.2 134.0 134.6 134.8 135.6 136.8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 205/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 661 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 89 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 110 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 18.7 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -13. -18. -21. -24. -26. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR -2. -4. -7. -9. -12. -14. -14. -14. -13. -13. -11. -9. PERSISTENCE -6. -9. -11. -11. -10. -9. -7. -6. -4. -3. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -8. -15. -21. -26. -34. -41. -47. -51. -54. -56. -56. -55. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -8. -6. -5. -4. -4. -3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -10. -8. -6. -5. -4. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -10. -19. -27. -34. -44. -52. -57. -59. -60. -61. -60. -59. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) KENNETH 9/19/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -20.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.00 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 17.0 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.02 SST (C) : Value: 27.4 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.20 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 50.6 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.13 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 80.8 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.67 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 54.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.38 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 18.7 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.44 Scaled RI index= 1.84 Prob of RI= 2.1% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.0%)