* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * MAX 09/19/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 63 64 64 63 58 51 44 36 29 25 21 18 V (KT) LAND 60 63 64 64 63 58 51 44 36 29 25 21 18 SHEAR (KTS) 7 7 11 11 8 9 12 10 15 12 7 1 5 SHEAR DIR 302 266 279 284 286 288 344 311 346 356 350 293 323 SST (C) 27.3 26.9 26.5 26.0 25.5 24.8 24.2 23.7 23.2 22.9 23.0 23.3 23.7 POT. INT. (KT) 140 136 131 126 121 114 107 102 97 94 95 98 102 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -51.7 -51.8 -52.0 -51.9 -51.9 -52.1 -51.8 -51.8 -51.7 -51.9 -51.7 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 3 3 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 500-300 MB RH 50 50 52 49 45 43 35 31 31 32 35 37 35 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 2 5 7 5 11 -1 -2 -5 -6 -4 -1 0 850 MB VORT 73 63 56 46 40 18 26 49 19 16 12 24 -4 LAND (KM) 959 953 945 941 946 990 1064 1115 1160 1270 1449 1593 1714 LAT (DEG N) 17.2 17.8 18.3 18.9 19.5 20.4 20.9 21.4 21.9 22.2 22.2 21.9 21.5 LONG(DEG W) 116.9 117.6 118.2 118.9 119.5 120.7 122.3 123.5 124.5 126.0 128.0 129.4 130.5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 315/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 6 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 590 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 51 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 45 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.9 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 0. -3. -6. -10. -14. -16. -17. -17. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -13. -15. -16. -18. -19. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 8. 8. 4. -3. -11. -20. -28. -33. -37. -40. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 4. 4. 3. -2. -9. -16. -24. -31. -35. -39. -42. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) MAX 9/19/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 15.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.90 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 9.0 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.54 SST (C) : Value: 26.4 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 70.8 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.34 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 79.4 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.61 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 53.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.36 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 21.9 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.30 Scaled RI index= 3.06 Prob of RI= 10.2% is 0.9 times the sample mean(12.0%)