* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * PHILIPPE 09/20/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 72 73 75 78 82 85 88 87 86 82 78 72 V (KT) LAND 70 72 73 75 78 82 85 88 87 86 82 78 72 SHEAR (KTS) 31 29 22 15 18 16 25 20 34 30 38 32 56 SHEAR DIR 280 284 292 270 250 255 229 235 223 215 212 213 215 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.4 28.7 27.4 26.2 25.3 25.1 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 164 152 134 121 113 111 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.8 -52.8 -52.3 -52.3 -52.1 -51.5 -51.9 -51.3 -51.2 -50.3 -51.4 -50.5 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 8 6 3 500-300 MB RH 64 68 71 73 71 72 65 57 48 50 43 39 34 MO FLX (M/S/D) 7 11 14 11 6 3 3 3 6 15 32 16 6 850 MB VORT 54 62 72 80 92 103 131 130 125 135 137 163 166 LAND (KM) 933 933 919 903 896 915 977 1105 1264 1457 1361 1220 1065 LAT (DEG N) 18.1 18.6 19.0 19.8 20.6 22.6 24.3 26.3 28.3 30.3 32.3 34.5 37.0 LONG(DEG W) 56.7 56.9 57.0 57.3 57.5 58.2 58.8 59.3 59.7 59.7 59.2 57.4 54.6 HEAT CONTENT 98 95 93 75 58 58 52 45 20 8 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 325/ 5 CX,CY: -2/ 4 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 623 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 43 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 65 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 16.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 13. 14. 14. 13. 9. 4. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR -3. -6. -9. -11. -13. -15. -16. -18. -18. -19. -17. -17. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 13. 16. 18. 20. 22. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 14. 17. 17. 17. 13. 9. 3. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 15. 18. 17. 16. 12. 8. 2. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) PHILIPPE 9/20/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 23.0 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.49 SST (C) : Value: 29.6 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.88 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 95.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.62 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 77.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.66 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 88.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.86 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 16.6 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.71 Scaled RI index= 5.09 Prob of RI= 39.9% is 3.3 times the sample mean(12.1%)