* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * RITA 09/20/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 65 71 77 82 90 96 101 102 102 98 93 87 V (KT) LAND 60 65 71 77 82 90 96 101 102 102 98 81 47 SHEAR (KTS) 13 7 4 8 11 7 12 11 14 16 26 23 24 SHEAR DIR 242 261 249 179 206 242 213 242 228 215 215 233 227 SST (C) 30.7 30.9 30.8 30.4 30.0 29.5 29.6 29.8 29.6 29.5 29.6 29.6 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 154 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.9 -51.8 -51.0 -50.7 -50.8 -50.0 -50.4 -49.7 -50.2 -49.7 -50.2 -49.4 TH_E DEV (C) 16 14 14 14 13 11 12 10 11 8 11 6 11 500-300 MB RH 42 45 45 45 44 45 44 42 44 42 41 41 28 MO FLX (M/S/D) 4 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -4 1 -2 4 3 -16 850 MB VORT 43 41 46 47 45 60 63 49 36 15 32 16 25 LAND (KM) 154 127 103 88 88 203 355 375 400 343 169 -12 -155 LAT (DEG N) 23.1 23.4 23.6 23.8 24.0 24.4 24.7 24.9 25.5 26.4 27.9 29.1 30.2 LONG(DEG W) 77.0 78.2 79.4 80.7 82.0 84.5 86.8 88.8 90.7 92.5 94.0 95.3 96.2 HEAT CONTENT 99 104 116 97 93 65 70 68 44 50 48 31 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 557 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 45 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 55 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 15. 18. 19. 21. 21. 20. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 10. 9. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 14. 19. 27. 33. 38. 41. 41. 38. 34. 28. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 5. 11. 17. 22. 30. 36. 41. 42. 42. 38. 33. 27. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) RITA 9/20/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 8.5 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.85 SST (C) : Value: 30.6 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 1.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 105.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.71 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 65.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.28 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 79.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.75 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 17.0 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.69 Scaled RI index= 5.17 Prob of RI= 42.5% is 3.5 times the sample mean(12.1%)