* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * JOVA 09/20/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 101 99 96 92 79 67 56 46 37 30 24 21 V (KT) LAND 100 101 99 96 92 79 67 56 46 37 30 24 21 SHEAR (KTS) 12 10 9 9 13 18 18 19 22 27 22 17 16 SHEAR DIR 161 177 187 189 183 216 206 204 188 200 202 205 229 SST (C) 26.8 26.7 26.6 26.5 26.5 26.2 26.0 25.9 25.8 25.7 25.7 25.6 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 135 133 132 131 131 128 126 125 124 123 123 122 122 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.1 -52.6 -52.7 -52.1 -52.1 -51.5 -51.8 -51.1 -51.7 -51.8 -51.6 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 6 5 6 5 5 5 5 6 5 500-300 MB RH 47 51 46 40 33 32 34 32 34 30 29 18 15 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 0 0 1 4 4 1 -2 1 9 1 0 850 MB VORT 104 110 104 104 108 113 88 76 59 64 42 24 31 LAND (KM) 1277 1219 1162 1114 1067 987 909 853 806 771 728 677 654 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.2 16.4 16.6 16.8 17.4 18.0 18.8 19.7 20.6 21.4 22.3 23.4 LONG(DEG W) 143.3 143.8 144.3 144.7 145.1 145.7 146.3 146.7 147.1 147.5 148.1 149.0 150.0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 310/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 4 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 578 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 57 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 90 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 9.7 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -6. -9. -15. -21. -26. -31. -35. -37. -39. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -2. -3. -4. -8. -9. -11. -12. -15. -17. -18. -19. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. -2. -5. -10. -22. -33. -43. -52. -61. -68. -74. -78. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. -1. -4. -8. -21. -33. -44. -54. -63. -70. -76. -79. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) JOVA 9/20/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 10.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.94 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 10.7 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.43 SST (C) : Value: 26.6 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 32.7 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 72.6 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.30 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 99.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.99 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 9.7 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.83 Scaled RI index= 3.50 Prob of RI= 18.3% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.0%)