* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * KENNETH 09/20/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 72 65 59 54 46 40 36 32 30 28 27 27 V (KT) LAND 80 72 65 59 54 46 40 36 32 30 28 27 27 SHEAR (KTS) 12 14 15 16 13 18 14 14 19 17 18 9 7 SHEAR DIR 53 52 58 53 54 60 108 95 102 101 115 128 83 SST (C) 27.4 27.4 27.3 27.3 27.2 27.1 26.8 26.5 26.2 25.8 25.5 25.3 25.1 POT. INT. (KT) 141 141 140 140 139 138 135 131 128 124 121 119 117 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -52.0 -52.3 -52.2 -51.5 -52.3 -51.7 -52.3 -51.6 -52.1 -51.6 -51.8 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 500-300 MB RH 53 50 48 49 48 48 44 44 43 47 45 40 35 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 1 1 0 3 3 0 5 4 5 -1 0 850 MB VORT 39 35 26 29 46 59 58 77 79 94 96 86 63 LAND (KM) 2285 2296 2307 2322 2337 2347 2313 2209 2120 2010 1895 1785 1677 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.6 13.7 13.9 14.0 14.5 15.4 16.2 16.9 17.7 18.4 18.9 19.2 LONG(DEG W) 130.8 131.1 131.3 131.7 132.0 132.6 133.4 134.2 134.9 135.8 136.8 137.8 138.8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 245/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 659 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 99 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 100 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -9. -12. -15. -18. -20. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -9. -8. -7. PERSISTENCE -6. -9. -11. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. -6. -5. -2. -1. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -14. -15. -15. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -7. -12. -17. -20. -27. -32. -37. -42. -45. -49. -50. -50. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -7. -6. -5. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -8. -15. -21. -26. -34. -40. -44. -48. -50. -52. -53. -53. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) KENNETH 9/20/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -20.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.00 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 14.0 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.21 SST (C) : Value: 27.3 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.18 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 59.9 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.22 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 77.6 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.53 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 56.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.41 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 18.2 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.47 Scaled RI index= 2.02 Prob of RI= 2.3% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.0%)