* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * MAX 09/20/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 66 66 64 62 54 45 36 28 22 19 17 15 V (KT) LAND 65 66 66 64 62 54 45 36 28 22 19 17 15 SHEAR (KTS) 8 12 13 9 6 13 7 16 14 11 5 5 5 SHEAR DIR 271 273 272 281 294 312 324 332 2 1 32 314 354 SST (C) 26.8 26.2 25.7 25.3 24.9 24.4 23.8 23.5 23.2 23.1 23.2 23.6 24.1 POT. INT. (KT) 135 128 123 119 115 110 103 100 97 96 97 101 106 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.8 -51.9 -51.9 -51.6 -52.3 -51.9 -51.9 -51.7 -52.0 -51.7 -52.0 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 3 3 3 2 3 3 4 3 3 3 500-300 MB RH 51 52 49 48 44 42 34 30 32 36 36 39 34 MO FLX (M/S/D) 2 6 10 9 11 6 -3 -5 -4 -10 -3 0 0 850 MB VORT 59 53 45 42 30 -7 15 14 -3 11 10 13 6 LAND (KM) 912 892 883 891 905 953 993 1071 1184 1329 1519 1691 1846 LAT (DEG N) 18.1 18.8 19.5 20.0 20.5 21.0 21.7 21.9 21.8 21.8 21.9 21.6 21.1 LONG(DEG W) 117.4 118.1 118.7 119.3 119.8 120.8 122.2 123.4 124.7 126.4 128.6 130.3 131.7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 315/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 6 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 595 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 19 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 55 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 18.9 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -3. -7. -12. -17. -20. -22. -23. -23. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -13. -15. -17. -19. -20. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 1. -1. -7. -16. -25. -33. -39. -43. -46. -48. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 1. -1. -3. -11. -20. -29. -37. -43. -46. -48. -50. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) MAX 9/20/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 10.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.94 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 9.5 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.50 SST (C) : Value: 25.8 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 58.9 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.21 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 78.8 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.58 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 69.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.58 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 18.9 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.43 Scaled RI index= 3.26 Prob of RI= 13.9% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12.0%)