* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * PHILIPPE 09/20/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 71 73 74 76 81 85 87 85 83 77 74 70 V (KT) LAND 70 71 73 74 76 81 85 87 85 83 77 74 70 SHEAR (KTS) 31 29 20 17 18 16 23 25 38 37 32 24 36 SHEAR DIR 274 288 281 257 261 216 243 218 239 217 232 215 212 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.5 29.1 27.9 26.4 25.5 24.8 24.7 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 165 165 164 165 159 141 123 114 109 108 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.9 -52.5 -52.5 -52.3 -51.5 -52.2 -51.5 -51.9 -50.8 -51.1 -50.7 -51.5 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 10 10 9 9 8 8 8 8 7 4 2 500-300 MB RH 64 67 72 70 76 75 66 60 52 54 51 52 43 MO FLX (M/S/D) 11 17 11 9 6 3 0 7 11 18 46 16 36 850 MB VORT 63 68 68 88 102 110 109 125 107 99 84 147 180 LAND (KM) 949 935 924 913 912 955 1044 1200 1389 1423 1259 1172 1022 LAT (DEG N) 18.5 19.0 19.5 20.3 21.1 23.0 24.9 27.1 29.5 31.7 33.8 35.8 37.7 LONG(DEG W) 56.7 56.9 57.0 57.3 57.5 58.0 58.5 58.9 59.5 59.2 58.0 54.9 50.5 HEAT CONTENT 94 91 82 64 56 57 53 31 11 3 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 340/ 5 CX,CY: -1/ 5 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 601 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 45 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 65 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 13. 13. 12. 10. 5. 0. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -15. -17. -18. -17. -15. -13. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -9. -11. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 7. 10. 12. 14. 16. 18. 20. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 11. 15. 18. 16. 14. 9. 5. 1. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 4. 6. 11. 15. 17. 15. 13. 7. 4. 0. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) PHILIPPE 9/20/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 23.0 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.49 SST (C) : Value: 29.6 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.87 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 95.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.62 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 78.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.69 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 93.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.92 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 21.9 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.53 Scaled RI index= 5.00 Prob of RI= 36.6% is 3.0 times the sample mean(12.1%)