* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * RITA 09/20/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 64 71 76 81 90 96 98 97 97 93 88 81 V (KT) LAND 60 64 71 76 81 90 96 98 97 97 93 58 37 SHEAR (KTS) 13 4 3 10 8 7 15 15 17 18 28 29 32 SHEAR DIR 263 290 204 223 280 281 261 256 253 222 233 241 245 SST (C) 30.8 30.6 30.1 29.7 29.4 29.5 29.8 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.2 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 165 164 165 165 165 165 165 165 160 133 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.6 -51.1 -50.8 -50.6 -50.3 -50.3 -50.4 -50.1 -50.0 -50.1 -49.3 -49.0 TH_E DEV (C) 15 14 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 8 6 500-300 MB RH 44 46 46 43 47 48 49 50 48 50 47 46 40 MO FLX (M/S/D) 2 0 0 0 0 -6 -10 -6 -4 0 20 24 5 850 MB VORT 41 47 37 42 45 66 54 45 16 44 -2 8 12 LAND (KM) 135 108 100 141 195 361 402 400 396 246 66 -112 -298 LAT (DEG N) 23.6 23.9 24.2 24.4 24.5 24.8 25.1 25.5 26.0 26.9 28.5 29.9 31.4 LONG(DEG W) 78.8 80.0 81.2 82.6 84.0 86.7 89.0 91.0 92.8 94.1 94.8 95.9 97.0 HEAT CONTENT 109 107 96 61 62 64 67 61 51 42 38 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 285/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 4 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 617 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 42 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 60 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 8.4 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 2. 4. 6. 8. 12. 16. 18. 20. 22. 22. 22. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -13. -15. -17. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 16. 24. 30. 34. 35. 36. 34. 29. 22. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 4. 2. 1. -1. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 11. 16. 21. 30. 36. 38. 37. 37. 33. 28. 21. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) RITA 9/20/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 7.8 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.87 SST (C) : Value: 30.1 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.95 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 104.8 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.71 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 66.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.32 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 100.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 1.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 8.4 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.99 Scaled RI index= 5.54 Prob of RI= 54.8% is 4.5 times the sample mean(12.1%)