* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * JOVA 09/20/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 96 91 84 77 64 52 41 31 22 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 100 96 91 84 77 64 52 41 31 22 DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 11 10 11 15 20 17 26 30 37 32 41 47 43 SHEAR DIR 169 189 208 203 212 219 213 207 216 212 217 234 238 SST (C) 26.7 26.6 26.4 26.3 26.3 26.0 25.8 25.8 25.7 25.6 25.6 25.9 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 133 132 130 129 129 126 124 124 123 122 122 125 126 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.4 -52.6 -52.2 -51.8 -52.2 -51.3 -51.7 -51.6 -52.5 -51.7 -52.0 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 3 4 500-300 MB RH 48 43 35 31 29 29 27 32 31 34 37 36 32 MO FLX (M/S/D) -3 0 0 2 0 7 10 11 4 34 0 -2 8 850 MB VORT 117 108 106 104 110 88 70 53 51 46 43 22 -11 LAND (KM) 1209 1156 1104 1057 1010 909 828 755 707 677 725 740 755 LAT (DEG N) 16.2 16.6 16.9 17.1 17.3 18.0 19.2 20.1 21.0 22.3 24.3 25.8 27.0 LONG(DEG W) 143.9 144.3 144.7 145.1 145.5 146.3 146.9 147.6 148.2 149.0 149.9 151.2 152.8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 300/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 609 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 46 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 100 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -9. -16. -22. -28. -32. -36. -38. -40. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -3. -4. -7. -10. -13. -16. -21. -25. -31. -38. -43. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -13. -13. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -12. -18. -30. -41. -52. -63. -73. -83. -94.-102. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. -4. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -4. -9. -16. -23. -36. -48. -59. -69. -78. -87. -98.-105. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) JOVA 9/20/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 13.3 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.26 SST (C) : Value: 26.5 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 31.0 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 70.2 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.19 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 80.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.73 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 14.5 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.63 Scaled RI index= 2.44 Prob of RI= 2.8% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.0%)