* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * KENNETH 09/20/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 67 60 54 48 39 34 30 29 29 27 26 26 V (KT) LAND 75 67 60 54 48 39 34 30 29 29 27 26 26 SHEAR (KTS) 14 17 19 17 17 20 15 16 12 15 18 11 8 SHEAR DIR 52 54 52 57 57 62 99 90 112 110 134 133 140 SST (C) 27.4 27.4 27.3 27.2 27.2 27.0 26.8 26.4 25.9 25.7 25.5 25.3 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 141 141 140 139 139 137 135 130 125 123 121 119 119 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.7 -52.9 -52.0 -52.2 -52.5 -51.9 -51.9 -51.6 -52.2 -52.0 -52.3 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 500-300 MB RH 52 50 48 48 47 47 44 48 39 38 32 32 25 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 -1 0 0 -1 2 5 2 0 0 1 2 -3 850 MB VORT 26 13 15 37 50 30 56 82 121 111 102 86 87 LAND (KM) 2300 2311 2322 2330 2338 2362 2259 2139 2012 1887 1759 1619 1490 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.6 13.7 14.0 14.3 14.8 15.5 16.5 17.6 18.2 18.4 18.7 19.0 LONG(DEG W) 131.0 131.3 131.5 131.9 132.3 133.1 133.9 134.8 135.8 136.9 138.1 139.4 140.6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 280/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 650 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 100 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 90 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.3 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -7. -10. -12. -14. -16. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -3. -5. -6. -9. -10. -10. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. PERSISTENCE -4. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -5. -4. -2. -1. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -13. -14. -14. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -5. -10. -13. -17. -24. -29. -34. -37. -40. -44. -45. -45. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -2. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -9. -7. -6. -4. -4. -3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -12. -11. -8. -6. -4. -4. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -8. -15. -21. -27. -36. -41. -45. -46. -46. -48. -49. -49. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) KENNETH 9/20/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -15.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.16 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 16.8 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.03 SST (C) : Value: 27.3 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.18 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 64.7 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.27 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 77.8 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.54 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 51.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.34 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 23.3 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.24 Scaled RI index= 1.75 Prob of RI= 2.0% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.0%)