* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * MAX 09/20/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 65 65 63 60 51 42 33 25 19 16 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 65 65 63 60 51 42 33 25 19 16 DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 12 11 7 6 12 11 10 12 11 8 3 3 1 SHEAR DIR 312 298 295 282 280 326 322 354 7 50 191 256 242 SST (C) 26.3 25.9 25.4 25.0 24.6 24.1 23.8 23.4 23.0 23.0 23.2 23.6 24.1 POT. INT. (KT) 129 125 120 116 112 106 103 99 95 95 97 101 106 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.3 -52.2 -52.0 -52.2 -52.5 -52.0 -51.9 -51.3 -51.8 -51.8 -52.0 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 2 500-300 MB RH 55 50 50 46 43 35 29 27 27 29 32 35 32 MO FLX (M/S/D) 5 7 6 9 17 2 -2 -4 -10 -2 0 1 0 850 MB VORT 63 50 48 43 30 7 3 -20 -6 -14 13 2 14 LAND (KM) 904 895 892 906 926 952 1008 1126 1271 1411 1507 1668 1859 LAT (DEG N) 18.7 19.3 19.8 20.4 20.9 21.5 21.7 21.8 21.9 21.9 21.8 21.5 21.2 LONG(DEG W) 118.1 118.6 119.1 119.7 120.3 121.4 122.4 124.0 125.8 127.4 128.4 130.0 131.9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 320/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 7 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 645 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 44 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 60 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -4. -9. -14. -19. -22. -24. -24. -24. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -12. -14. -16. -18. -20. -21. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -1. -4. -12. -20. -29. -37. -43. -46. -48. -49. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 0. -2. -5. -14. -23. -32. -40. -46. -49. -50. -51. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) MAX 9/20/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.79 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 9.5 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.51 SST (C) : Value: 25.4 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 55.4 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.18 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 79.6 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.62 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 79.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.72 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 17.1 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.51 Scaled RI index= 3.32 Prob of RI= 15.0% is 1.3 times the sample mean(12.0%)