* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * PHILIPPE 09/20/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 64 65 67 69 75 81 84 86 86 84 82 79 V (KT) LAND 65 64 65 67 69 75 81 84 86 86 84 82 79 SHEAR (KTS) 26 13 15 15 13 17 17 31 30 37 29 32 47 SHEAR DIR 293 291 244 242 236 210 224 229 233 234 241 227 208 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.1 27.8 26.3 25.2 24.7 24.8 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 159 139 122 112 108 109 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.6 -52.8 -52.5 -52.4 -52.3 -52.4 -52.0 -52.4 -51.7 -52.4 -51.8 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 6 5 2 500-300 MB RH 64 66 68 73 73 69 63 52 45 39 38 41 38 MO FLX (M/S/D) 14 5 2 1 1 0 2 2 1 8 11 28 12 850 MB VORT 63 68 88 103 110 122 124 125 114 99 99 161 228 LAND (KM) 918 902 893 883 883 923 1030 1200 1398 1427 1292 1189 1021 LAT (DEG N) 18.1 18.8 19.5 20.3 21.1 22.9 25.0 27.3 29.6 31.8 34.0 36.0 37.8 LONG(DEG W) 57.0 57.2 57.3 57.6 57.8 58.3 58.8 59.2 59.5 58.8 56.9 53.8 50.0 HEAT CONTENT 101 95 81 64 57 57 53 28 10 2 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 335/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 597 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 64 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 70 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 33.4 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 13. 14. 13. 11. 7. 2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 14. 16. 17. 19. 22. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 4. 8. 14. 20. 23. 24. 24. 21. 18. 14. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. 0. 2. 4. 10. 16. 19. 21. 21. 19. 17. 14. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) PHILIPPE 9/20/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.53 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 16.6 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.65 SST (C) : Value: 29.6 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.87 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 100.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.67 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 79.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.72 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 73.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.67 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 33.4 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.14 Scaled RI index= 4.25 Prob of RI= 14.7% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12.1%)