* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * RITA 09/20/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 64 69 74 80 88 93 96 96 95 92 86 78 V (KT) LAND 60 64 69 74 80 88 93 96 96 95 67 40 31 SHEAR (KTS) 11 2 8 8 5 12 11 13 13 23 25 26 29 SHEAR DIR 296 272 231 269 283 216 235 225 212 218 239 237 263 SST (C) 30.5 30.1 29.7 29.5 29.5 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.4 27.4 24.7 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 164 134 108 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.2 -50.9 -50.8 -50.7 -50.0 -50.3 -49.7 -50.1 -49.1 -48.8 -48.7 -49.0 TH_E DEV (C) 14 15 15 14 13 12 10 11 7 9 6 8 4 500-300 MB RH 44 45 46 47 46 49 48 47 44 45 43 45 47 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 1 0 0 -1 -4 -10 -17 -11 0 10 5 -6 850 MB VORT 49 45 48 52 60 72 44 52 38 54 26 12 20 LAND (KM) 78 77 130 177 254 322 373 470 340 163 -88 -312 -484 LAT (DEG N) 23.7 23.9 24.1 24.2 24.3 24.5 24.5 24.9 25.8 27.3 29.3 31.3 33.2 LONG(DEG W) 80.3 81.7 83.0 84.4 85.7 88.2 90.3 92.1 93.8 95.3 96.6 97.3 97.5 HEAT CONTENT 100 99 51 67 69 73 25 38 35 43 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 279/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 644 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 24 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 60 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 11.8 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 2. 4. 6. 8. 12. 15. 18. 19. 21. 21. 19. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 9. 9. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -15. -17. -20. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -2. -3. -4. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 16. 24. 29. 34. 35. 36. 33. 28. 19. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 9. 14. 20. 28. 33. 36. 36. 35. 32. 26. 18. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) RITA 9/20/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 6.9 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.89 SST (C) : Value: 29.9 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.91 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 105.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.71 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 66.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.30 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 99.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.99 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 11.8 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.87 Scaled RI index= 5.38 Prob of RI= 49.4% is 4.1 times the sample mean(12.1%)