* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * JOVA 09/20/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 95 87 79 72 59 47 36 26 17 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 100 95 87 79 72 59 47 36 26 17 DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 10 10 16 20 18 17 26 31 39 40 44 43 44 SHEAR DIR 186 200 204 213 226 209 209 210 224 211 224 235 243 SST (C) 26.6 26.5 26.4 26.3 26.2 26.0 25.9 25.8 25.7 25.7 25.9 26.0 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 132 131 130 129 128 126 125 124 123 123 125 126 126 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.6 -52.2 -51.8 -51.9 -51.6 -51.4 -51.5 -51.9 -51.4 -51.8 -52.5 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 500-300 MB RH 43 33 29 30 31 27 31 31 29 37 35 36 34 MO FLX (M/S/D) -1 0 0 -5 0 1 9 -9 10 7 3 6 0 850 MB VORT 109 106 105 110 104 76 72 44 44 37 37 7 -40 LAND (KM) 1131 1075 1019 966 912 799 712 638 593 598 618 702 822 LAT (DEG N) 16.4 16.7 17.0 17.3 17.5 18.3 19.4 20.6 21.9 23.4 24.8 26.5 28.2 LONG(DEG W) 144.6 145.1 145.5 146.0 146.4 147.3 148.0 148.8 149.7 150.7 151.8 152.9 154.1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 295/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 655 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 36 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 100 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 17.9 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -10. -16. -22. -28. -32. -36. -38. -39. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -3. -6. -8. -11. -15. -19. -25. -30. -37. -44. -50. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -3. -8. -14. -20. -31. -42. -53. -65. -75. -86. -96.-105. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -2. -5. -7. -8. -10. -10. -9. -7. -6. -5. -4. -4. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -2. -4. -7. -8. -10. -11. -10. -9. -7. -6. -5. -5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -5. -13. -21. -28. -41. -53. -64. -74. -83. -92.-102.-110. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) JOVA 9/20/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 14.8 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.16 SST (C) : Value: 26.4 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 30.4 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 70.8 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.22 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 74.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.65 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 17.9 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.48 Scaled RI index= 2.14 Prob of RI= 2.5% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.0%)