* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * KENNETH 09/20/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 58 52 47 42 34 28 25 23 23 22 22 22 V (KT) LAND 65 58 52 47 42 34 28 25 23 23 22 22 22 SHEAR (KTS) 19 20 19 19 21 19 17 14 20 18 16 13 9 SHEAR DIR 56 52 58 58 62 77 87 101 104 115 130 132 127 SST (C) 27.5 27.4 27.3 27.3 27.2 27.1 26.8 26.5 26.3 26.1 25.8 25.7 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 142 141 140 140 139 138 135 131 129 127 124 123 123 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.9 -52.0 -52.2 -52.4 -51.9 -51.9 -51.5 -52.2 -52.0 -52.2 -52.1 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 500-300 MB RH 53 49 49 51 53 49 50 47 46 37 34 28 26 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 0 0 0 2 5 -2 0 0 0 -4 0 850 MB VORT 10 12 33 44 30 40 62 93 118 109 98 82 95 LAND (KM) 2354 2354 2353 2361 2369 2348 2259 2157 2018 1859 1705 1575 1458 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.4 13.6 13.9 14.1 14.6 15.5 16.2 16.8 17.4 17.8 18.1 18.2 LONG(DEG W) 131.4 131.6 131.8 132.2 132.5 133.3 133.9 134.7 135.9 137.3 138.7 139.9 141.0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 270/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 561 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 86 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 80 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.6 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -3. -5. -6. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. -9. PERSISTENCE -4. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. -8. -7. -6. -4. -2. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -14. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -5. -9. -12. -16. -22. -28. -32. -35. -37. -40. -40. -39. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -9. -8. -6. -5. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -7. -13. -18. -23. -31. -37. -40. -42. -42. -43. -43. -43. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) KENNETH 9/20/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -15.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.16 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 19.6 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.00 SST (C) : Value: 27.3 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.19 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 75.2 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.38 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 78.0 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.55 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 53.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.36 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 23.6 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.23 Scaled RI index= 1.87 Prob of RI= 2.2% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.0%)