* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * MAX 09/20/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 64 63 60 56 47 37 27 20 16 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 64 63 60 56 47 37 27 20 16 DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 11 9 8 12 12 8 15 12 11 2 13 9 6 SHEAR DIR 277 266 268 274 289 311 318 356 349 336 313 308 330 SST (C) 25.8 25.3 24.8 24.5 24.2 23.8 23.4 23.2 23.0 23.1 23.2 23.7 24.4 POT. INT. (KT) 124 119 114 111 107 103 99 97 95 96 97 102 110 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.1 -51.6 -51.8 -52.1 -51.9 -51.9 -51.8 -51.7 -51.7 -51.7 -51.8 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 3 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 1 3 500-300 MB RH 47 47 44 41 37 31 28 29 35 33 35 37 38 MO FLX (M/S/D) 8 8 13 11 8 0 -6 -12 -4 0 -5 -1 1 850 MB VORT 66 66 59 49 36 32 7 8 21 19 35 25 14 LAND (KM) 906 914 931 943 941 978 1056 1145 1262 1390 1547 1710 1877 LAT (DEG N) 19.3 19.9 20.5 21.0 21.4 21.8 22.0 22.0 21.9 21.8 21.9 21.4 20.5 LONG(DEG W) 118.8 119.5 120.1 120.6 121.1 122.1 123.3 124.4 125.7 127.1 128.9 130.4 131.7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 320/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 7 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 630 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 22 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 65 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 13.2 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -12. -17. -22. -25. -26. -26. -25. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -13. -16. -18. -20. -22. -23. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -7. -11. -20. -29. -38. -44. -48. -51. -54. -54. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -2. -5. -9. -18. -28. -38. -45. -49. -53. -55. -55. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) MAX 9/20/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 10.5 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.44 SST (C) : Value: 24.9 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 49.9 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.12 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 77.2 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.51 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 97.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.96 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 13.2 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.68 Scaled RI index= 3.34 Prob of RI= 15.5% is 1.3 times the sample mean(12.0%)