* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * PHILIPPE 09/20/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 53 53 55 58 64 69 72 74 75 78 79 73 V (KT) LAND 55 53 53 55 58 64 69 72 74 75 78 79 73 SHEAR (KTS) 18 16 14 9 14 19 23 33 35 35 30 43 60 SHEAR DIR 284 256 256 241 214 224 209 238 227 249 227 217 218 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.4 28.1 26.3 25.4 24.9 25.0 23.7 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 165 165 165 164 143 122 114 110 110 101 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.7 -52.5 -52.2 -52.0 -52.4 -51.9 -52.9 -51.9 -52.9 -52.2 -52.1 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 10 9 9 9 8 8 7 4 2 1 500-300 MB RH 63 66 69 69 71 61 55 47 47 49 46 35 37 MO FLX (M/S/D) 6 9 9 7 4 1 7 9 15 38 25 3 -17 850 MB VORT 73 93 99 109 137 134 143 105 86 61 141 143 41 LAND (KM) 875 862 856 856 874 954 1102 1350 1375 1186 1109 892 823 LAT (DEG N) 18.5 19.2 19.8 20.9 22.0 24.1 26.4 29.2 32.1 34.7 36.6 38.9 41.4 LONG(DEG W) 57.4 57.6 57.7 58.0 58.3 58.9 59.5 59.7 59.4 57.7 54.5 50.5 45.9 HEAT CONTENT 98 91 78 59 59 51 44 14 2 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 325/ 4 CX,CY: -1/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 660 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 72 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 70 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 29.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 13. 14. 13. 11. 8. 5. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -4. -7. -8. -9. -11. -11. -11. -10. -7. -4. -2. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -9. -12. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 13. 15. 16. 18. 20. 20. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -1. 2. 5. 11. 17. 20. 21. 23. 25. 25. 20. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -2. 0. 3. 9. 14. 17. 19. 20. 23. 24. 18. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) PHILIPPE 9/20/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -15.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.18 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 14.3 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.70 SST (C) : Value: 29.6 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.87 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 110.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.76 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 79.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.72 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 60.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.52 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 29.3 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.28 Scaled RI index= 4.02 Prob of RI= 12.0% is 1.0 times the sample mean(12.1%)