* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * RITA 09/20/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 95 103 110 116 122 125 125 120 114 105 93 81 V (KT) LAND 85 95 103 110 116 122 125 125 120 114 56 36 30 SHEAR (KTS) 2 6 7 6 6 13 14 19 23 25 22 27 29 SHEAR DIR 220 209 242 247 215 221 207 223 216 239 242 274 257 SST (C) 30.1 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.6 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.6 28.4 25.7 23.3 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 148 116 99 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.3 -51.4 -51.3 -50.5 -50.4 -50.0 -49.7 -48.8 -48.5 -47.2 -48.3 -48.3 TH_E DEV (C) 16 15 14 13 13 12 11 9 9 6 8 4 6 500-300 MB RH 48 50 49 48 50 47 42 38 40 39 37 39 42 MO FLX (M/S/D) 1 1 0 0 0 0 -2 0 7 -3 8 2 4 850 MB VORT 42 58 57 65 77 64 73 63 85 55 65 55 41 LAND (KM) 77 120 169 250 320 348 414 404 232 23 -214 -409 -611 LAT (DEG N) 23.9 24.0 24.1 24.3 24.4 24.5 24.6 25.3 26.8 28.5 30.5 32.5 34.5 LONG(DEG W) 81.7 83.1 84.4 85.7 87.0 89.4 91.4 93.2 94.7 95.9 96.8 97.3 97.5 HEAT CONTENT 98 52 69 71 78 49 29 51 37 36 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 275/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 568 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 46 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 60 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 8.4 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 2. 5. 7. 10. 13. 15. 15. 15. 15. 11. 5. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. -1. -1. -1. 0. PERSISTENCE 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 8. 8. 7. 5. 4. 1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -13. -16. -19. -22. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 9. 16. 22. 28. 33. 37. 38. 35. 29. 22. 10. -3. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 10. 18. 25. 31. 37. 40. 40. 35. 29. 20. 8. -4. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) RITA 9/20/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 25.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.00 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 5.4 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.93 SST (C) : Value: 29.7 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.89 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 80.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.48 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 68.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.36 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 100.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 1.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 8.4 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.99 Scaled RI index= 4.64 Prob of RI= 23.1% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12.1%)