* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * JOVA 09/20/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 95 87 79 71 58 45 35 26 17 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 100 95 87 79 71 58 45 35 26 17 DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 11 12 17 17 20 21 27 35 36 46 42 44 48 SHEAR DIR 197 195 206 214 209 202 221 219 207 209 228 235 239 SST (C) 26.6 26.5 26.3 26.2 26.2 26.0 25.9 25.8 25.8 25.8 26.1 26.3 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 132 131 129 128 128 126 125 124 124 124 127 129 129 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.1 -51.9 -52.0 -52.1 -51.2 -51.8 -51.9 -52.8 -52.0 -52.5 -53.2 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 6 6 500-300 MB RH 36 32 32 32 30 31 31 29 34 37 34 35 41 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 0 5 1 0 -1 6 10 6 20 6 5 850 MB VORT 100 101 98 95 90 83 45 43 38 38 25 13 -24 LAND (KM) 1077 1016 955 900 845 752 660 577 508 503 534 638 737 LAT (DEG N) 16.5 16.8 17.1 17.4 17.7 18.6 19.8 21.0 22.0 23.4 25.0 26.8 28.5 LONG(DEG W) 145.1 145.6 146.1 146.6 147.0 147.7 148.5 149.5 150.7 152.0 153.4 155.1 157.0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 285/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 652 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 26 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 100 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 16.6 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -10. -16. -22. -28. -32. -36. -37. -39. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -4. -6. -9. -12. -17. -21. -25. -31. -38. -44. -51. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -4. -9. -15. -21. -33. -45. -56. -66. -77. -87. -95.-104. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -8. -6. -5. -4. -4. -3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -9. -8. -6. -5. -5. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -5. -13. -21. -29. -42. -55. -65. -74. -83. -92.-100.-108. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) JOVA 9/20/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 15.4 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.12 SST (C) : Value: 26.4 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 29.9 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 71.8 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.26 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 71.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.61 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 16.6 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.53 Scaled RI index= 2.16 Prob of RI= 2.5% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.0%)