* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * KENNETH 09/20/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 49 44 39 34 28 24 21 20 21 22 23 24 V (KT) LAND 55 49 44 39 34 28 24 21 20 21 22 23 24 SHEAR (KTS) 20 16 21 26 27 20 20 17 18 15 14 13 8 SHEAR DIR 57 62 51 55 61 65 64 81 88 117 104 134 128 SST (C) 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.3 27.2 27.1 26.8 26.6 26.4 26.2 25.9 25.5 25.5 POT. INT. (KT) 142 141 141 140 139 138 135 132 130 128 125 121 121 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -51.9 -52.3 -52.5 -52.6 -52.4 -53.1 -52.4 -52.3 -52.3 -52.7 -52.9 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 4 5 4 5 4 5 5 6 6 500-300 MB RH 52 51 53 57 55 53 50 48 50 49 45 40 35 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 -5 -1 -3 0 0 6 11 6 0 -2 -3 850 MB VORT 8 15 24 17 15 41 48 80 90 101 88 84 63 LAND (KM) 2332 2342 2353 2369 2385 2321 2248 2172 2087 1959 1810 1645 1473 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.4 13.5 13.8 14.1 14.8 15.5 16.0 16.5 17.1 17.8 18.3 18.6 LONG(DEG W) 131.1 131.4 131.7 132.2 132.7 133.5 134.0 134.6 135.3 136.4 137.7 139.2 140.8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 235/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 624 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 55 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 75 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 17.9 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. -9. -8. PERSISTENCE -5. -9. -11. -13. -14. -15. -14. -12. -10. -9. -6. -4. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. -14. -14. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -6. -11. -15. -19. -25. -29. -32. -34. -34. -33. -32. -30. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -6. -11. -16. -20. -27. -31. -34. -35. -34. -33. -32. -31. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) KENNETH 9/20/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -20.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.00 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 21.9 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.00 SST (C) : Value: 27.4 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.19 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 85.4 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.49 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 79.6 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.62 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 44.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.24 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 17.9 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.48 Scaled RI index= 2.02 Prob of RI= 2.3% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.0%)