* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * MAX 09/20/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 63 59 55 51 41 31 24 19 16 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 63 59 55 51 41 31 24 19 16 DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 7 7 9 8 9 9 11 9 5 6 10 8 4 SHEAR DIR 291 302 305 326 340 335 8 17 76 232 280 310 321 SST (C) 25.3 25.0 24.6 24.2 24.0 23.6 23.4 23.2 23.1 23.2 23.5 23.9 24.4 POT. INT. (KT) 119 116 112 107 105 101 99 97 96 97 100 104 110 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.6 -51.9 -52.3 -52.4 -52.3 -52.3 -52.1 -52.4 -52.0 -52.2 -51.7 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 500-300 MB RH 46 44 40 37 36 30 35 36 36 35 42 46 45 MO FLX (M/S/D) 8 12 9 9 2 -8 -8 -6 0 2 0 -7 -1 850 MB VORT 61 52 44 32 28 3 -12 -5 -9 27 30 56 46 LAND (KM) 902 915 934 947 958 1023 1133 1224 1309 1420 1558 1694 1845 LAT (DEG N) 19.9 20.4 20.9 21.3 21.6 21.9 21.7 21.7 21.7 21.6 21.2 20.7 20.1 LONG(DEG W) 119.3 119.9 120.4 121.0 121.6 122.8 124.0 125.1 126.1 127.3 128.6 129.8 131.1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 315/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 6 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 598 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 15 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 65 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 18.7 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -7. -13. -19. -23. -26. -27. -26. -26. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -13. -16. -18. -20. -22. -23. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -8. -12. -20. -30. -37. -43. -46. -49. -50. -50. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -6. -10. -14. -24. -34. -41. -46. -49. -51. -52. -52. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) MAX 9/20/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 7.9 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.61 SST (C) : Value: 24.6 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 46.8 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.09 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 77.2 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.51 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 72.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.62 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 18.7 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.44 Scaled RI index= 2.90 Prob of RI= 7.4% is 0.6 times the sample mean(12.0%)