* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 09/20/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 33 37 41 49 56 62 66 66 66 64 60 V (KT) LAND 25 29 33 37 41 49 56 62 66 66 66 64 60 SHEAR (KTS) 20 15 14 14 9 6 6 1 5 6 9 15 15 SHEAR DIR 118 106 98 97 88 51 39 142 91 139 128 139 133 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.5 28.2 27.8 27.3 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 153 152 151 151 152 153 152 149 145 140 138 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.7 -52.8 -53.1 -52.9 -52.8 -52.6 -52.2 -52.3 -52.0 -52.0 -52.1 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 7 8 7 9 9 9 8 7 6 4 500-300 MB RH 68 72 70 68 64 69 60 63 57 52 49 47 44 MO FLX (M/S/D) -2 -1 0 -1 -2 -4 -2 -1 0 0 0 2 4 850 MB VORT -4 -3 -9 -1 4 13 27 36 42 53 41 50 48 LAND (KM) 726 743 756 775 806 862 888 951 968 964 994 1028 1055 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 11.3 11.5 11.7 11.9 12.5 13.3 14.1 14.8 15.5 16.2 16.9 17.2 LONG(DEG W) 103.0 104.0 104.9 105.9 106.9 108.8 110.4 112.0 113.4 114.8 116.3 117.5 118.4 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 542 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 45 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 10. 16. 22. 26. 29. 30. 30. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. 500-300 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 19. 27. 34. 38. 39. 39. 37. 34. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 8. 12. 16. 24. 31. 37. 41. 41. 41. 39. 35. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 9/20/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.79 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 14.3 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.20 SST (C) : Value: 28.6 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.55 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 128.1 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.93 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 85.8 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.90 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 67.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.55 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 21.0 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.34 Scaled RI index= 4.26 Prob of RI= 32.6% is 2.7 times the sample mean(12.0%)