* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * PHILIPPE 09/21/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 54 54 56 59 65 69 72 73 75 77 77 71 V (KT) LAND 55 54 54 56 59 65 69 72 73 75 77 77 71 SHEAR (KTS) 19 15 12 15 17 20 32 31 35 31 42 58 52 SHEAR DIR 261 254 246 227 222 230 231 226 235 241 223 211 210 SST (C) 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 28.9 27.3 25.9 25.2 25.1 23.2 23.3 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 165 165 165 155 133 118 112 111 98 99 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.3 -52.1 -51.8 -52.1 -52.1 -52.0 -52.3 -51.8 -52.5 -51.7 -51.6 -48.9 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 9 9 8 8 8 8 6 2 1 1 500-300 MB RH 65 70 70 71 70 61 51 49 45 50 41 40 29 MO FLX (M/S/D) 2 4 4 3 7 8 13 4 27 47 60 62 -65 850 MB VORT 88 99 105 132 144 137 126 101 60 98 138 186 170 LAND (KM) 866 862 869 876 900 1017 1212 1474 1255 1096 883 743 878 LAT (DEG N) 19.0 19.9 20.7 21.8 22.8 25.1 27.8 30.6 33.3 36.0 38.8 41.2 43.3 LONG(DEG W) 57.5 57.7 57.8 58.2 58.5 59.1 59.8 60.0 59.3 56.5 51.9 47.8 43.0 HEAT CONTENT 94 76 60 58 57 54 25 8 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 340/ 5 CX,CY: -1/ 5 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 650 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 94 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 65 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 13. 11. 9. 7. 3. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. -5. -3. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. -11. -14. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 13. 15. 16. 18. 21. 23. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 4. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 5. 8. 14. 19. 21. 22. 23. 24. 23. 18. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -1. 1. 4. 10. 14. 17. 18. 20. 22. 22. 16. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) PHILIPPE 9/21/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -10.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.35 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 16.0 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.66 SST (C) : Value: 29.6 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.86 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 110.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.76 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 78.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.69 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 45.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.34 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 33.0 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.15 Scaled RI index= 3.82 Prob of RI= 9.5% is 0.8 times the sample mean(12.1%)