* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * RITA 09/21/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 93 98 102 106 110 112 109 104 99 91 81 69 V (KT) LAND 90 93 98 102 106 110 112 109 104 81 45 32 29 SHEAR (KTS) 8 6 4 7 11 10 16 22 31 28 28 29 44 SHEAR DIR 221 262 258 220 198 211 210 214 228 244 254 266 255 SST (C) 29.8 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.8 29.8 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.5 28.1 25.3 23.0 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 143 113 97 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.2 -51.1 -50.4 -50.1 -50.4 -49.8 -49.8 -48.9 -48.2 -47.9 -48.7 -48.6 TH_E DEV (C) 16 14 13 13 13 10 11 7 10 5 9 3 3 500-300 MB RH 47 50 53 53 51 45 43 41 39 39 36 38 43 MO FLX (M/S/D) 1 0 0 0 0 -2 1 -1 9 2 1 -1 -1 850 MB VORT 48 56 74 76 71 60 51 53 65 44 61 81 41 LAND (KM) 109 141 197 289 290 378 431 352 149 -41 -248 -426 -651 LAT (DEG N) 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.1 24.2 24.6 25.3 26.3 27.6 29.1 30.8 32.8 35.2 LONG(DEG W) 82.7 84.0 85.2 86.5 87.7 90.1 91.7 93.2 94.7 95.9 96.9 97.1 96.7 HEAT CONTENT 66 59 81 76 76 26 51 38 44 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 580 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 38 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 85 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 17.7 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 2. 4. 7. 9. 12. 13. 12. 10. 9. 5. -2. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -5. -6. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -14. -17. -19. -22. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -2. -3. -5. -7. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 16. 21. 23. 20. 16. 10. 3. -7. -20. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 8. 12. 16. 20. 22. 19. 14. 9. 1. -9. -21. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) RITA 9/21/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 7.3 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.88 SST (C) : Value: 29.7 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.88 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 75.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.44 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 68.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.38 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 93.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.92 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 17.7 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.67 Scaled RI index= 5.05 Prob of RI= 38.5% is 3.2 times the sample mean(12.1%)