* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * JOVA 09/21/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 96 90 85 79 65 52 39 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 100 96 90 85 79 65 52 39 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 18 17 16 17 17 23 26 37 41 48 47 51 37 SHEAR DIR 201 209 221 218 214 208 217 217 207 221 228 228 238 SST (C) 26.4 26.3 26.2 26.1 26.0 25.9 25.9 25.8 25.8 26.0 26.2 26.3 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 130 129 128 127 126 125 125 124 124 126 128 129 128 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.0 -52.2 -52.2 -51.7 -51.5 -51.8 -52.3 -52.0 -52.6 -53.1 -52.7 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 6 6 7 6 500-300 MB RH 34 35 33 30 29 32 30 34 34 27 30 32 39 MO FLX (M/S/D) 5 4 4 3 7 12 -3 1 1 5 -2 6 54 850 MB VORT 111 106 94 85 79 70 38 49 34 43 40 39 12 LAND (KM) 1013 957 902 845 789 692 593 537 515 517 588 696 843 LAT (DEG N) 16.9 17.2 17.5 17.9 18.3 19.3 20.4 21.7 22.9 24.4 26.0 27.8 29.7 LONG(DEG W) 145.6 146.1 146.5 147.0 147.4 148.2 149.2 150.2 151.3 152.8 154.4 156.2 158.0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 295/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 666 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 75 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 100 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 9.9 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -11. -17. -23. -29. -33. -36. -38. -39. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR -3. -6. -8. -10. -15. -18. -24. -29. -37. -45. -53. -58. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. -11. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -5. -11. -16. -23. -35. -47. -60. -71. -84. -96.-106.-113. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -4. -10. -15. -21. -35. -48. -61. -73. -86. -98.-107.-114. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) JOVA 9/21/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 17.3 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.00 SST (C) : Value: 26.2 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 28.3 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 73.0 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.32 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 99.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.99 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 9.9 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.83 Scaled RI index= 2.76 Prob of RI= 4.8% is 0.4 times the sample mean(12.0%)