* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * KENNETH 09/21/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 51 47 43 39 33 29 26 24 25 25 26 27 V (KT) LAND 55 51 47 43 39 33 29 26 24 25 25 26 27 SHEAR (KTS) 17 21 25 27 25 20 19 17 18 14 15 8 8 SHEAR DIR 63 51 55 61 64 63 77 80 102 108 119 123 139 SST (C) 27.4 27.4 27.3 27.2 27.1 27.0 26.8 26.7 26.4 26.2 25.6 25.5 25.5 POT. INT. (KT) 141 141 140 139 138 137 135 133 130 128 122 121 121 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.3 -52.5 -52.6 -52.2 -52.8 -52.4 -52.7 -51.9 -52.8 -52.7 -53.2 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 500-300 MB RH 50 53 57 55 53 51 52 50 50 50 41 37 31 MO FLX (M/S/D) -1 -6 -3 -5 -3 0 4 12 8 3 0 -2 -5 850 MB VORT 15 24 14 13 24 41 56 82 90 97 83 68 64 LAND (KM) 2331 2342 2353 2357 2363 2325 2282 2196 2074 1903 1690 1505 1335 LAT (DEG N) 13.4 13.6 13.7 14.1 14.4 15.0 15.4 15.9 16.6 17.3 18.1 18.6 18.8 LONG(DEG W) 131.3 131.6 131.9 132.3 132.7 133.4 133.7 134.4 135.4 136.9 138.8 140.5 142.1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 270/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 640 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 46 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 65 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.7 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -10. -10. -9. -8. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. -3. -2. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. -14. -14. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -10. -14. -19. -23. -26. -28. -28. -29. -28. -27. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -4. -8. -12. -16. -22. -26. -29. -31. -30. -30. -29. -28. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) KENNETH 9/21/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -10.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.31 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 22.8 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.00 SST (C) : Value: 27.3 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.17 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 84.5 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.48 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 78.0 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.55 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 48.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.30 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 19.7 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.40 Scaled RI index= 2.21 Prob of RI= 2.5% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.0%)