* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * MAX 09/21/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 62 58 54 49 38 26 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 62 58 54 49 38 26 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 6 10 10 8 5 13 13 12 5 6 6 3 4 SHEAR DIR 290 294 336 353 1 344 6 12 43 18 115 44 122 SST (C) 24.9 24.6 24.2 24.0 23.7 23.5 23.2 23.0 22.9 23.0 23.4 23.9 24.3 POT. INT. (KT) 115 112 107 105 102 100 97 95 94 95 99 104 108 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.8 -52.1 -52.4 -52.2 -52.3 -52.2 -52.1 -52.3 -52.3 -52.6 -52.8 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 3 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 500-300 MB RH 42 41 39 36 33 30 32 33 34 36 36 37 34 MO FLX (M/S/D) 10 10 11 1 -1 -6 -8 -2 0 0 0 -1 -2 850 MB VORT 56 47 38 41 29 2 -3 -12 -6 -3 -12 -19 -8 LAND (KM) 867 893 898 918 940 1032 1122 1207 1285 1411 1568 1704 1822 LAT (DEG N) 20.7 21.1 21.5 21.8 22.0 22.0 22.1 22.1 22.1 21.9 21.5 21.0 20.5 LONG(DEG W) 119.5 120.1 120.6 121.2 121.8 123.0 124.2 125.2 126.1 127.4 128.9 130.1 131.1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 340/ 8 CX,CY: -2/ 8 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 534 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 21 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 70 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 12.8 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -8. -15. -20. -25. -28. -28. -28. -27. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -11. -14. -16. -19. -21. -23. -24. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -13. -18. -29. -40. -50. -55. -58. -60. -60. -60. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -3. -7. -11. -16. -27. -39. -49. -55. -59. -61. -61. -60. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) MAX 9/21/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.47 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 7.9 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.61 SST (C) : Value: 24.3 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 43.3 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.05 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 76.0 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.45 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 81.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.74 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 12.8 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.70 Scaled RI index= 3.03 Prob of RI= 9.8% is 0.8 times the sample mean(12.0%)