* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 09/21/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 33 37 41 50 58 64 66 67 66 65 63 V (KT) LAND 25 29 33 37 41 50 58 64 66 67 66 65 63 SHEAR (KTS) 13 14 10 8 5 4 2 2 6 7 13 15 21 SHEAR DIR 110 97 107 94 121 25 152 68 150 138 129 132 132 SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.3 28.1 27.9 27.6 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 155 154 153 152 151 152 152 152 150 148 146 143 143 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.8 -53.1 -52.9 -52.5 -52.9 -51.9 -52.5 -51.6 -52.2 -51.9 -52.7 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 8 7 7 6 6 500-300 MB RH 72 70 67 65 67 65 61 59 55 53 49 54 52 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 -1 -1 -1 -2 -5 -1 -1 0 0 1 2 0 850 MB VORT -1 -7 2 7 10 24 30 31 45 40 51 55 66 LAND (KM) 682 686 706 731 762 807 862 930 947 1010 1092 1182 1256 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.3 12.5 12.8 13.0 13.6 14.3 14.9 15.3 15.5 15.7 15.8 15.8 LONG(DEG W) 104.2 105.2 106.1 107.0 107.9 109.6 111.1 112.6 114.1 115.6 117.1 118.4 119.6 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 565 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 10 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 12.7 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 10. 16. 22. 26. 29. 30. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 2. 3. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 10. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 500-300 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 9. 17. 25. 32. 37. 39. 39. 38. 36. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 8. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 2. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 8. 12. 16. 25. 33. 39. 41. 42. 41. 40. 38. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 9/21/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 10.1 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.47 SST (C) : Value: 28.6 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.56 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 128.3 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.93 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 85.0 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.86 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 82.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.76 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 12.7 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.70 Scaled RI index= 4.91 Prob of RI= 57.4% is 4.8 times the sample mean(12.0%)