* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * PHILIPPE 09/21/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 55 56 58 61 67 72 75 76 77 76 74 68 V (KT) LAND 55 55 56 58 61 67 72 75 76 77 76 74 68 SHEAR (KTS) 21 17 15 15 17 19 28 29 36 35 46 58 68 SHEAR DIR 267 266 254 227 231 217 242 231 258 247 250 233 239 SST (C) 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.5 29.4 28.7 27.0 25.5 24.8 25.0 24.0 22.1 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 164 165 164 152 129 114 109 110 103 92 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.5 -52.2 -52.6 -52.7 -52.3 -53.0 -52.4 -53.2 -53.5 -55.1 -54.2 -55.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 7 5 1 1 1 500-300 MB RH 65 70 72 71 71 62 57 56 50 60 63 50 38 MO FLX (M/S/D) 3 5 7 4 2 4 8 11 35 33 28 -24 -32 850 MB VORT 89 93 104 119 113 120 98 98 22 61 44 96 28 LAND (KM) 869 886 916 933 969 1088 1276 1529 1312 1162 934 941 1203 LAT (DEG N) 19.3 20.3 21.2 22.4 23.5 25.8 28.2 30.7 33.3 36.1 38.9 41.4 43.4 LONG(DEG W) 57.5 57.5 57.5 57.9 58.2 58.9 59.3 59.0 57.9 54.4 48.8 43.9 38.5 HEAT CONTENT 86 65 55 59 53 50 19 5 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 340/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 599 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 51 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 55 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 35.4 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 6. 9. 11. 11. 10. 7. 4. 1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -9. -12. -16. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 14. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 18. 23. 25. 25. 25. 23. 20. 14. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 1. 3. 6. 12. 17. 20. 21. 22. 21. 19. 13. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) PHILIPPE 9/21/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 17.2 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.63 SST (C) : Value: 29.5 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.86 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 109.8 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.76 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 79.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.73 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 34.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.20 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 35.4 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.07 Scaled RI index= 3.96 Prob of RI= 11.3% is 0.9 times the sample mean(12.1%)