* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * RITA 09/21/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 105 111 114 118 121 122 121 114 108 98 86 69 V (KT) LAND 100 105 111 114 118 121 122 121 114 72 41 31 28 SHEAR (KTS) 6 3 5 11 10 11 11 15 21 16 29 28 52 SHEAR DIR 251 242 168 184 219 206 216 186 222 242 272 252 256 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.3 27.0 24.4 22.9 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 162 129 106 96 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.3 -50.5 -50.0 -50.1 -50.1 -50.0 -48.9 -48.8 -47.6 -48.4 -49.2 -49.7 TH_E DEV (C) 14 12 13 13 12 11 9 10 7 10 7 6 0 500-300 MB RH 52 52 53 53 50 46 42 45 43 39 34 40 45 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 1 0 0 0 -2 0 0 5 5 1 9 10 850 MB VORT 58 71 72 74 72 65 44 68 37 28 34 38 -34 LAND (KM) 163 227 315 320 326 419 419 275 100 -101 -301 -493 -668 LAT (DEG N) 24.2 24.3 24.4 24.5 24.5 24.9 25.6 26.6 27.9 29.6 31.6 33.6 35.5 LONG(DEG W) 84.0 85.3 86.5 87.5 88.5 90.4 92.4 94.1 95.3 96.2 96.8 96.8 96.2 HEAT CONTENT 61 71 65 78 66 17 55 36 44 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 641 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 43 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 85 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 14.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 4. 6. 9. 11. 11. 9. 7. 5. -2. -11. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -12. -15. -18. -20. -22. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 14. 17. 21. 22. 21. 15. 10. 0. -13. -29. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 5. 11. 14. 18. 21. 22. 21. 14. 8. -2. -14. -31. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) RITA 9/21/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 15.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.60 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 7.2 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.88 SST (C) : Value: 29.6 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.87 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 65.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.35 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 69.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.39 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 98.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.98 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 14.3 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.79 Scaled RI index= 4.86 Prob of RI= 31.8% is 2.6 times the sample mean(12.1%)