* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * JOVA 09/21/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 95 89 83 76 60 47 34 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 100 95 89 83 76 60 47 34 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 18 16 16 18 21 24 33 40 51 51 45 47 38 SHEAR DIR 221 233 218 215 220 224 216 217 216 220 222 231 239 SST (C) 26.3 26.2 26.1 26.0 26.0 25.9 25.9 25.7 25.9 26.0 25.9 25.4 24.7 POT. INT. (KT) 129 128 127 126 126 125 125 123 125 126 125 120 113 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.3 -52.3 -51.8 -51.8 -51.9 -52.0 -52.5 -53.1 -53.7 -53.2 -54.1 -54.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 500-300 MB RH 33 33 30 28 28 27 28 35 42 48 47 52 62 MO FLX (M/S/D) 5 5 1 0 -10 0 11 6 12 19 39 28 14 850 MB VORT 104 87 80 78 82 54 40 24 39 32 37 28 24 LAND (KM) 955 903 852 790 729 638 554 539 580 711 899 1125 1389 LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.5 17.8 18.3 18.7 19.7 20.9 22.5 24.4 26.6 28.9 31.5 34.3 LONG(DEG W) 146.1 146.5 146.9 147.4 147.9 148.7 149.7 150.7 151.9 152.9 153.9 154.8 155.7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 295/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 2 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 662 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 44 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 100 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 10.6 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -8. -11. -18. -24. -29. -34. -36. -38. -40. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR -3. -5. -8. -11. -16. -21. -26. -35. -44. -51. -59. -65. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -5. -11. -18. -25. -39. -51. -64. -78. -91.-102.-112.-120. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -5. -11. -17. -24. -40. -53. -66. -81. -94.-105.-114.-122. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) JOVA 9/21/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 17.9 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.00 SST (C) : Value: 26.1 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 27.4 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 73.4 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.34 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 95.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.93 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 10.6 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.80 Scaled RI index= 2.69 Prob of RI= 3.6% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.0%)