* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * KENNETH 09/21/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 47 44 40 37 33 28 26 26 27 28 28 27 V (KT) LAND 50 47 44 40 37 33 28 26 26 27 28 28 27 SHEAR (KTS) 21 26 28 26 24 24 21 19 10 9 10 5 10 SHEAR DIR 54 58 64 69 65 54 70 83 125 112 156 148 180 SST (C) 27.4 27.3 27.3 27.2 27.1 27.0 26.8 26.5 26.1 25.8 25.3 25.2 25.2 POT. INT. (KT) 141 140 140 139 138 137 135 131 127 124 119 118 118 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.9 -53.0 -52.6 -52.7 -53.0 -52.5 -52.9 -52.7 -52.8 -52.7 -53.0 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 5 5 5 4 5 4 4 5 4 4 500-300 MB RH 54 57 56 53 55 53 55 52 42 33 25 17 16 MO FLX (M/S/D) -8 -4 -7 -6 0 -4 3 9 2 -3 -2 -3 0 850 MB VORT 12 1 -1 6 16 9 46 66 99 98 100 60 58 LAND (KM) 2346 2349 2353 2350 2348 2346 2269 2178 2032 1859 1660 1498 1371 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.7 13.9 14.3 14.6 15.0 15.5 16.2 17.1 18.0 18.8 19.3 19.6 LONG(DEG W) 131.6 131.9 132.1 132.4 132.7 133.2 133.8 134.5 135.7 137.2 139.0 140.5 141.7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 290/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 648 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 15 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 55 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.7 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -12. -12. -10. -9. -7. -6. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. -15. -15. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -8. -11. -15. -19. -22. -23. -22. -22. -22. -22. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -3. -6. -10. -13. -17. -22. -24. -24. -23. -22. -22. -23. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) KENNETH 9/21/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.47 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 25.3 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.00 SST (C) : Value: 27.3 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.16 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 89.3 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.53 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 78.4 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.56 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 41.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.20 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 19.7 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.40 Scaled RI index= 2.33 Prob of RI= 2.7% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.0%)