* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * MAX 09/21/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 61 56 51 45 34 24 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 61 56 51 45 34 24 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 9 10 8 6 6 11 9 8 1 3 5 7 0 SHEAR DIR 300 350 17 18 354 12 21 64 47 26 249 349 281 SST (C) 24.4 24.2 23.9 23.8 23.6 23.3 23.1 23.0 23.0 23.2 23.6 24.1 24.5 POT. INT. (KT) 110 107 104 103 101 98 96 95 95 97 101 106 111 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.5 -52.6 -52.2 -52.1 -52.3 -52.0 -52.2 -52.0 -52.4 -52.6 -52.9 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 500-300 MB RH 41 38 35 32 25 26 24 25 31 34 33 37 31 MO FLX (M/S/D) 9 9 2 -1 -3 -6 -5 -2 7 0 -1 -1 0 850 MB VORT 37 26 37 36 23 -2 20 6 28 20 43 42 48 LAND (KM) 865 883 898 937 978 1058 1156 1247 1340 1464 1630 1766 1884 LAT (DEG N) 21.4 21.7 21.9 22.0 22.1 22.2 22.1 22.0 21.9 21.6 21.2 20.7 20.2 LONG(DEG W) 120.0 120.6 121.1 121.8 122.4 123.5 124.6 125.6 126.6 127.8 129.4 130.6 131.6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 320/ 8 CX,CY: -4/ 6 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 581 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -1 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 65 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 17.9 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -10. -16. -22. -26. -29. -29. -29. -27. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -12. -14. -17. -19. -21. -23. -23. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -11. -16. -27. -37. -45. -49. -51. -51. -51. -50. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -4. -9. -14. -20. -31. -41. -48. -52. -53. -52. -52. -52. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) MAX 9/21/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 7.6 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.63 SST (C) : Value: 24.0 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 40.1 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.02 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 75.2 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.42 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 50.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.32 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 17.9 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.48 Scaled RI index= 2.50 Prob of RI= 2.9% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.0%)