* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * PHILIPPE 09/21/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 43 44 45 48 53 59 63 65 69 71 72 66 V (KT) LAND 45 43 44 45 48 53 59 63 65 69 71 72 66 SHEAR (KTS) 18 14 15 15 19 24 27 36 32 45 52 66 65 SHEAR DIR 260 258 234 228 220 226 232 245 264 254 241 236 238 SST (C) 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 28.2 26.2 25.0 24.6 24.7 23.2 21.9 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 164 164 164 162 145 121 110 107 108 98 91 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.4 -52.7 -52.8 -52.8 -52.5 -53.3 -52.8 -54.1 -54.1 -54.8 -53.1 -54.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 7 7 3 1 1 1 500-300 MB RH 64 68 70 70 67 59 56 55 54 59 54 37 39 MO FLX (M/S/D) 3 4 4 4 0 7 11 24 27 21 0 -11 -4 850 MB VORT 81 97 111 111 121 122 106 62 50 77 111 147 15 LAND (KM) 908 925 955 978 1018 1145 1361 1470 1284 1091 996 1104 1366 LAT (DEG N) 19.8 20.8 21.7 22.9 24.0 26.4 29.0 31.6 34.3 36.9 39.1 41.2 43.1 LONG(DEG W) 57.2 57.3 57.3 57.7 58.0 58.8 59.1 58.2 56.2 52.2 46.6 41.6 36.5 HEAT CONTENT 75 58 56 59 52 43 13 1 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 0/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 583 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 55 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 55 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 38.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 11. 10. 8. 7. 5. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -6. -3. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -13. -16. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 11. 13. 14. 16. 16. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 4. 7. 13. 19. 22. 23. 26. 28. 28. 22. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -1. 0. 3. 8. 14. 18. 20. 24. 26. 27. 21. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) PHILIPPE 9/21/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -10.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.35 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 16.0 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.66 SST (C) : Value: 29.5 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.85 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 119.3 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.84 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 78.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.70 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 46.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.35 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 38.3 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.00 Scaled RI index= 3.76 Prob of RI= 8.8% is 0.7 times the sample mean(12.1%)